Factors affecting cultural ecosystem services use in Vilnius (Lithuania): A participatory mapping survey approach.

Assessing preferences of recreational activities related to cultural ecosystem services (CES) in urban areas is essential for decision-making and urban green space (UGS) management. This work aims to assess the preferences and factors (based on socio-demographic and motivation variables) influencing CES-related activities in Vilnius, Lithuania, to provide scientific knowledge to support more efficient UGS design and management. Participatory mapping was reported as relevant for urban park planning and decision-making and was applied to identify spatially explicit CES. We assessed the perceived relevance of five CES-related activities groups (Social activities, Inspirational activities, Cultural activities, Spiritual activities, and Physical activities) via participatory mapping through an online survey (n = 1.114). The users selected one preferred geographic location for each CES-related activities group and attributed relevance (using a 5-point Likert scale) for a set of motivation items. The results showed that Physical and Social activities were the respondents' most important CES-related activity groups, while Spiritual activities were the less popular. Factor Analysis showed that the respondent's recreation experience preferences, or motivations, were the most relevant variables influencing all the groups except for the Social activities group. Regarding Cultural activities, preferences for understanding things & learn about history were the most relevant variables. For Inspirational activities, the variables developing knowledge & to learn were the most important. Enjoying nature's quietness & frequency was the most relevant for Physical activities. Regarding Spiritual activities, the most important variables were related to the development of spiritual activities and the reflection on personal religious values. Finally, socio-demographic variables mainly influenced social activities, namely education level, gender and age group. The spatial distribution was different between activity groups. Inspirational activities showed the highest dispersion, and Spiritual activities the highest concentration. The results of this work are relevant to municipal managers, as they allow for a better understanding of users' interactions with the territory, its multifunctionality, and potential areas of conflict between conservation and recreation.

Mapping and assessment of recreational cultural ecosystem services supply and demand in Vilnius (Lithuania).

This work aims to map and assess the recreational culture ecosystem services (CES) supply and demand in Vilnius. A novel framework individually assessed natural recreational CES supply and cultural recreational CES supply dimensions. So far, the previous works did not consider both CES components individually. Also, the validation of CES models is scarce and challenging. This work aims to map and assess natural recreational supply CES, cultural recreational CES supply, natural + cultural recreational CES supply, and cultural recreational CES demand. The results showed that the natural recreational CES supply dimension was the highest in protected areas. In contrast, the cultural, recreational CES supply dimension had the highest scores in the city centre. Natural + cultural recreational CES supply was high in the areas where the previous models had the highest values (e.g., protected areas and the city centre). The natural + cultural recreational CES supply model was validated using an online survey. Recreational CES demand was the highest in the areas near the city centre. There was a mismatch between the natural recreational CES supply and recreational demand. Nevertheless, we identified a match between cultural recreational CES supply dimension, Natural + cultural recreational CES supply and recreation CES demand. All the studied parameters had a clustered pattern. The natural recreational CES supply dimension had a hot spot in the northern part of the city. In contrast, cultural recreational CES supply dimension, Natural + cultural recreational CES supply and recreational CES demand were clustered in the city centre. Overall, it is vital to preserve the areas with maximum natural recreation CES supply and limit the urban expansion in these areas. Also, it is essential to reduce the car traffic to the centre and improve public transport accessibility to increase air quality and the impact of pollutants on cultural heritage sites.

Mapping and assessing coastal recreation cultural ecosystem services supply, flow, and demand in Lithuania.

Coastal recreation as a cultural ecosystem service (CES) is key to human wellbeing. However, anthropogenic impacts at the coast affect CES supply. Mapping and assessing CES can help achieve better coastal planning and management of the coast. Quantitative approaches for assessing and mapping CES are lacking, especially in coastal areas. We develop three quantitative models to assess and map coastal recreation CES supply, flow, and demand. We applied the developed models in the coastal region of Lithuania. The coastal recreation CES supply model comprises natural (e.g., naturalness) and cultural (e.g., points of interest) components. The input variables were (1) analysed for multicollinearity, (2) normalised and (3) overlayed using ArcGIS 10.8. An online survey was undertaken to assess and map CES flow and demand based on locations chosen by respondents where they perform recreation at the coast and the number of activities performed when visiting the coast. The coastal recreation CES supply model results showed that natural recreation is close to the coastline, forest areas, waterlines, and protected areas, while cultural recreation is highest in coastal urban areas. The supply model was validated (r2 = 0.11) based on the respondents' chosen coastal locations for recreation. The low validation allowed us to identify the mismatch between model results and respondents' preferences occurring in Klaipeda urban area. When removing respondents' points in Klaipeda urban area, the model validation increased (r2 = 0.36). CES flow results highlighted Palanga, Sventoji, and Nida as the prime coastal recreation locations. The results of CES demand show that respondents living in municipalities near the coastline (Baltic Sea and Curonian Lagoon) perform fewer activities when visiting the coast. For other municipalities, a demand pattern was not observed. Our results yielded important spatial information that can be useful for planners and decision-makers in the context of coastal management.

Future scenarios impact on land use change and habitat quality in Lithuania.

Anticipating future land use and land cover (LULC) changes can improve our knowledge of the complexity of human-environment interactions that lead to transformations in the landscape. Therefore, it is key to understand these LULC changes under different scenarios and how they affect habitat quality (HQ) a key indicator for ecosystem services (ES) supply quality. This work aims to study the impacts of LULC changes under different scenarios: business as usual (A0), urbanisation (A1), land abandonment and afforestation (A2) and agriculture intensification (A3) in 2050. To simulate future LULC changes we applied the Cellular Automata (CA) method, and to assess HQ, the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model was used. Spatial autocorrelation was assessed with a Moran's I index and the Getis Ord* hotspot analysis. The result showed that the LULC model calibration and validation were accurate (80%). Between 1990 and 2018 there was an increase in urban areas and forest and woodlands, which was reflected in the A0 scenario in 2050. Under the A1 scenario there was an increase in the urban area (4628 ha) compared to 2018, and in the most important cities (e.g., Vilnius, Kaunas, Klaipeda) in the scenario A2 there was an increase of 375,820 ha of woodland and forest. Finally, under the scenario A3, a large growth in cropland area (884,030 ha) was identified. HQ model had a better validation using three cover density data (r2 = 0.67), than with imperviousness (r2 = 0.26). A2 scenario showed the highest HQ and A3 scenario have the lowest HQ. The land uses of 1990, 2018, and A3 scenario had a clustered distribution while A0, A1 and A2 showed a random pattern. The results can support policy-makers by assessing the impact of future LULC changes in Lithuania.

Future land-use changes and its impacts on terrestrial ecosystem services: A review.

Terrestrial ecosystem services (ES) are vulnerable to land use and land cover changes (LULCC). These changes are triggered by different drivers of change (e.g., economic, social, political, environmental - climate change). Understanding the potential future LULCC is an effective way to anticipate the impacts on ES supply. In recent years, some researchers applied different spatial modelling methods to assess the potential LULCC future impacts on ES supply, but so far, no systematic review was carried out. This work aims to do a bibliographic review about future LULCC and their implications on ES supply (provisioning, regulating, and cultural services). After a rigorous bibliographic review, we identified 957 papers. However, only 79 papers meet the criteria to be used in the review. The results showed that (i) the studies have been mainly focused on Asia (55.70%) and Europe (17,72%); (ii) the most common and extensively used models to project future LULCC were cellular automata (30.86%), CLUE-S model (8.64%) and Land Change Modeler (8.64%); and (iii) the most used methods to assess future impacts on ES were the InVEST model (24.04%), and equations used in previous works (12.5%). These studies were mainly focused on measuring future impacts on provisioning (44.11%) and regulating services (43.59%). Also, most of the works lack external validation. The diversity of studies evaluated allowed to recognise gaps and outline insights into the current scientific research on this scientific domain, representing an essential contribution to the current state of knowledge by supporting both practitioners and scientists.